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Premier League predictions 2026/27: Winner, table, and relegation

The Premier League is the world’s most-viewed sports league. The league’s competitiveness and unpredictability make it globally popular, but can underlying data metrics, supercomputers, and betting odds be utilised to…

Our Premier League football predictions for 26/27 are based on a combination of data metrics, 2025-26 performances, summer spending, betting odds, and statistical forecasting.

But who is most likely to win the Premier League, how often does a new top goalscorer emerge, and are the three recently promoted sides as likely to be relegated as the betting odds suggest?

Key findings

Arsenal are our pick to retain the title and the bookmakers’ favourites at 5/6 (1.83), with 17/20 (1.85) the longest price available.
Manchester City have spent €526.2 million this summer, €119.5 million more than any other club, and look equipped to compete under Enzo Maresca.
Liverpool at 14/1 (15.00), and up to 18/1 (19.00), is the standout value price in the outright market despite a title challenge looking unlikely.
All three promoted clubs spent inside the division’s top 12 this summer, but Hull City, Ipswich Town, and Coventry City remain our relegated three.
Opta’s supercomputer rates Arsenal at 47.26% to retain the title, 7.3 percentage points below the probability implied by their odds.

Premier League 26-27 predictions at a glance

Premier League winner predictions

Arsenal are the bookmakers’ clear Premier League title favourites, with most platforms offering odds of 5/6 (1.83) and 17/20 (1.85) available at the top of the market.

Mikel Arteta’s side won the 2025-26 Premier League title by seven points and, with each of their biggest rivals under new management, are the most likely candidates to finish top this season.

However, winning the title under a new manager is far from unprecedented. It has happened six times in Premier League history, including three times at Chelsea, in 2004-05 under Jose Mourinho, 2009-10 under Carlo Ancelotti, and 2016-17 under Antonio Conte.

The Stamford Bridge club have won their opening two Premier League fixtures under their new manager, Xabi Alonso. The Bundesliga-winning coach has already created a tactical framework that appears to utilise the strengths of attackers Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, and Morgan Rogers.

However, after conceding five in their opening two matches, the early signs suggest that, while Chelsea may have an exciting season, it may be too early in Alonso’s tenure to realistically win the title. They would need to concede just 22 goals across their final 36 matches to match Arsenal’s 2025-26 defensive record.

Pep Guardiola won six Premier League titles with Manchester City, before departing the Citizens at the end of the 2025-26 season.

Anybody expecting a Manchester United-esque post-Alex Ferguson decline may be disappointed. Now under Enzo Maresca’s management, City have spent €526.2 million this summer, €119.5 million more than second-placed Chelsea and the largest outlay in the division, and have won their opening two games.

The new signings showed few signs of struggling to adjust to life at City during their 4-1 away victory against Crystal Palace in matchweek two. Maresca’s team appears to have the individual quality and tactical cohesion to battle in another title race, and is priced at 3/1 (4.00) across most of the market, with 7/2 (4.50) the best available price.

But how City adapts to life post-Guardiola in the long term remains unpredictable. The safest bet for this season’s Premier League winner is Arsenal.

All data is correct as of Friday, 4 September 2026: transfer fees courtesy of Transfermarkt, odds courtesy of Oddschecker, and supercomputer projections courtesy of Opta Analyst.

Premier League table predictions

Top six

7-20th

Champions League and European qualification predictions

Liverpool supporters haven’t entered a Premier League season as pessimistic about their title-winning credentials in several years, with the Kopites finishing bottom of The Athletic’s Hope-o-Meter table.

The sentiment is shared by the bookies, most of whom offer odds of 14/1 (15.00) on Liverpool to win the title, with 18/1 (19.00) the longest price on the market. But while Liverpool may not be as strong as in previous years, they can still improve on last season’s fifth-placed finish.

New signings Jérémy Jacquet, Víctor Muñoz, and Ronald Araújo have all impressed during Liverpool’s opening two matches, while the deadline-day arrival of Bradley Barcola, a guaranteed £106 million, rising to £123 million with add-ons, will bolster their attack. Liverpool recouped just €31.2 million in sales, leaving them with a net spend of €238.4 million, the heaviest in the league.

Last season’s €100 million-plus signings, most notably, Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak, have now had a full year to adjust to the weight of Anfield’s expectations, while promising youngsters Rio Ngumoha and Trey Nyoni have had another year of development.

Andoni Iraola’s high-pressing tactical system will resonate with Liverpool supporters more than Arne Slot’s possession-based style, but the team is likely to be too short on numbers in defence and midfield areas to mount a serious title challenge. Replacing Mohamed Salah, who left on a free transfer when his contract expired, is the bigger question.

However, they will hope to finish above Manchester United, who finished 3rd in last season’s Premier League. An opening-day defeat to the newly promoted Hull City raised alarm bells, but the loss wasn’t entirely unpredictable.

Under Michael Carrick, United beat Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Liverpool in the second half of last season, but dropped points to the league’s lower-ranked teams.

If United are unable to break down teams sitting in a low-block more effectively this campaign, 5th place is their most realistic finish.

Tottenham Hotspur, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, Newcastle United, and Aston Villa make up an unpredictable pack of middle-tier teams.

Each has the talent to qualify for next season’s European competitions, but many have had high squad turnovers over the summer, making their outcomes fairly unpredictable.

Premier League relegation predictions

As the financial gap between the Premier League and the Championship widens, the three recently-promoted teams usually start the season as the clear relegation favourites.

In both 2023-24 and 2024-25, all three promoted teams were relegated straight back to the Championship. In 2025-26, Burnley were the only promoted side to be relegated.

This season, recently promoted trio Hull City, Coventry City, and Ipswich Town are the bookmakers’ favourites to be relegated.

However, despite finishing 6th in the Championship last campaign and spending less than nine Premier League teams in the transfer market, Hull have won their opening two games.

In 38-game Premier League seasons, 36 points have ensured survival 60% of the time. So, Hull may only need to take 30 points from their final 36 fixtures to beat the drop.

But, with a team that lacks Premier League quality, that task remains difficult.

Premier League betting predictions and tips

Some sportsbooks still list these markets as Premiership betting. The Premiership name predates the league’s 2007 rebrand, so Premiership predictions and Premier League predictions refer to the same competition and the same markets.

Our Premier League tips below cover the four main outright markets, which, between them, attract the heaviest turnover of any football betting product in Britain. The Betting and Gaming Council expects £800 million to be staked with illegal operators on the Premier League alone this season.

Premier League winner: The Premier League only has seven previous winners: Manchester United (13), Manchester City (8), Chelsea (5), Arsenal (4), Liverpool (2), Leicester (1), and Blackburn (1). It’s highly unlikely that there will be a new winner this season. Users backing an outsider, such as Chelsea, Liverpool, or United, may be tempted to place an each-way wager.
Top-four/European qualification: Top-four and European championship markets vary from bookmaker to bookmaker. For example, last season, Liverpool qualified for the Champions League but didn’t finish inside the top four. Bettors must check each market’s terms and conditions before placing a bet.
Relegation: The promoted trio are the bookmakers’ favourites for the drop, and Opta’s pre-season model agreed, rating Hull at 38.7%, Ipswich at 31.2%, and Coventry at 27.9%. Backing an outsider who’s endured significant squad turnover may be a more valuable bet than backing the favourites.
Golden Boot: Golden Boot markets require punters to predict the Premier League’s top goalscorer. Since 2015-16, the award has only been won by Harry Kane, Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Jamie Vardy, Son Heung-min, and Erling Haaland. Haaland is the only previous winner still playing in the Premier League, and a fourth scoring crown would match the all-time record held jointly by Thierry Henry and Salah. Backing an outsider, such as Joao Pedro or Alexander Isak, may be tempting.
Potential outsider/value prediction: Most bookmakers price Liverpool at 14/1 (15.00) to win the Premier League title, and 18/1 (19.00) is available. While the 2024-25 champions have endured significant squad turnover and managerial changes in recent years, they still have a squad that balances the experience of Virgil Van Dijk and Alisson, along with the world-class talent of Isak, Wirtz, and Barcola. While they’re unlikely to win the title, 14/1 (15.00) is good value for a talented team that will be unpredictable.

Premier League match predictions

The odds of outright Premier League markets, such as winner, top-four, golden boot, and relegation, constantly update and adjust in response to results, underlying data, algorithmic insights, and injuries.

For example, before a ball had been kicked, most bookmakers priced Chelsea at 9/1 (10.00) to win the Premier League title. However, after two strong performances under Alonso, the west London club’s odds have dropped to 6/1 (7.00), with 13/2 (7.50) available at the top of the market.

Their title odds will change throughout the season. For example, if Joao Pedro suffers a season-ending injury next week, Chelsea’s odds may increase back to 9/1 (10.00) or higher.

Beyond outright markets, most sportsbooks offer dozens of markets on each Premier League fixture, including full-time, first goalscorer, and corners. Premier League score predictions are settled on the correct score market, which carries the widest margin of any single-fixture market.

Supercomputer prediction models vs betting odds

Sportsbook betting odds include a margin, typically of 2–4%. As such, the betting odds’ implied probability doesn’t accurately reflect actual probability.

For example, Arsenal Premier League winner odds of 5/6 (1.83) give the Gunners an implied probability of 54.6%. However, that implied probability is likely to include a margin added by the sportsbook.

Supercomputer prediction models, which use algorithmic data and run thousands of simulations of the same event or season, may be more accurate in determining an outcome’s actual probability.

Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal a 47.26% chance of retaining the title after two fixtures, meaning that the betting odds misrepresent actual probability by 7.3 percentage points.

That 7.3 percentage point gap is larger than sportsbooks’ typical margin, meaning betting odds may have been influenced by public behaviour or strategic pricing.

Bettors can evaluate whether an outright market offers value by analysing the odds’ implied probability vs a reputable supercomputer’s projections.

Crucially, both sportsbooks and supercomputer models use much of the same data to project future outcomes, but Premier League odds respond to several influences beyond actual probability.

Teams like Liverpool, who currently have a pessimistic supporter base, may offer greater value in outright Premier League winner markets, as fewer supporters are tempted to place wagers on them winning, meaning odds don’t adjust as sharply.

Underlying data

During the early stages of the season, luck, fine margins, and clinical finishing that’s hard to maintain can manipulate the Premier League table and betting odds.

In 2025-26, Aston Villa won 11 consecutive matches in the first half of the season. During the first 18 matches, 33.33% of their goals were scored from outside the box, the highest of any team in Europe’s top-five leagues.

Despite being in a title race, only seven Premier League teams had a lower total xG (expected goals) than Villa, causing many analysts to predict that their form would deteriorate in the second half of the season.

Ultimately, Villa failed to score from outside the box at the same rate, and the goals that they scored during the second half of the season correlated more closely with their xG.

This meant that the 3-point gap between leaders Arsenal after 18 games extended to 20 by the end of the season.

Bettors can use underlying data metrics, such as xG and shots outside the box, when placing mid-season outright wagers to determine whether a team’s results are sustainable.

FAQs

Who’s predicted to win the Premier League?

Arsenal. They won the 2025-26 title by seven points while conceding only 27 goals, and they are the only side among the top four in the Premier League table who did not change manager over the summer. Manchester City are the most credible threat.

Who are the favourites to win the Premier League in 2026-27?

Arsenal are favourites at 5/6 (1.83), ahead of Manchester City at 3/1 (4.00) and Chelsea at 6/1 (7.00). Liverpool and Manchester United are next at 14/1 (15.00), with Tottenham Hotspur a distant sixth at 80/1 (81.00). Prices were checked on Friday, 4 September 2026, and move with the results and injuries.

What is the supercomputer prediction for the Premier League?

Opta’s model gives Arsenal a 47.26% chance of retaining the title after two matchweeks, up from 38.0% pre-season. That is 7.3 percentage points below the 54.6% implied by their 5/6 (1.83) price, a gap wider than a typical sportsbook margin.

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